Every month we send an email newsletter to our supporters sharing recent updates from our work. We publish selected portions of the newsletter on our blog to make this news more accessible to people who visit our website. For key updates from the latest installment, please see below!
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Forecasting the Future of Global Health Funding
One of the most challenging questions we’re grappling with in today’s evolving global health landscape is: how will foreign aid cuts in 2025 affect the future of global health funding?
To prepare for various future scenarios, we’ve analyzed global health funding and gathered forecasts from experts. These estimates are highly uncertain, but our current best guess is that US global health funding could be cut by 50%. We expect other large funders to reduce spending alongside the US, leading to an overall global health funding decrease of approximately one-third compared to 2024 levels—a $20 billion cut.
While some prioritization is expected to protect cost-effective programs, we estimate around $1.5 billion in cuts to programs that are 20x our benchmark or greater—in addition to another $1.5 billion in cuts to programs that are 10x to 20x our benchmark. That’s $3 billion more in needs above our current 10x benchmark for funding new programs.
To put this in perspective, GiveWell directed approximately $400 million in 2024, meaning the new projected needs are nearly eight times our current funding capacity. While we’re far from certain about this forecast, we’re preparing for a future of increased need by expanding our research into new areas, hiring more staff, and highlighting the exceptional impact that additional funding could have.
The next major milestone is when the federal budget is passed for the next fiscal year, which begins October 1. We won’t know the full scope of the cuts until then, and the process is frequently delayed. However, the broader impacts of this situation are more likely to emerge gradually rather than all at once, so we are continuously monitoring the funding landscape through regular check-ins with partners and experts. Whatever the exact outcome, the scale of the needs we are forecasting underscores the importance of rigorous research to identify and prioritize where each dollar can do the most good.
For a deeper dive into our analysis of these potential cuts, listen to Podcast Episode 6: Forecasting the Future of Global Health Funding, where CEO Elie Hassenfeld and Principal Researcher Alex Cohen discuss these forecasts and their implications.
Grant Spotlight
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